Spring 2026 has done something I genuinely didn't expect: inventory is up, days-on-market is down, and competition has intensified at the same time. Here's what that means for buyers, sellers, and investors right now.
The headline numbers
Across the South Bay and Peninsula, April 2026 closed:
- Median price: $1.97M (▲ 4.4% YoY)
- Days on market: 21 (▼ 5 days vs March)
- Inventory (active): ▲ 12% YoY
- Sale-to-list ratio: 104% (▲ 1.1pt)
Inventory bumping while DOM shrinks is unusual. Normally those move together: more inventory means slower sales. The fact that we're seeing both means demand is materially stronger than 2025.
What's driving the demand
Three factors I'm watching:
- Rate fatigue. Buyers who waited through 2024 and 2025 are pulling triggers in 2026. Rates haven't dropped enough to validate the wait. Cohorts are converting.
- Tech RTO mandates. Apple, Google, and Meta tightening RTO is converting apartment renters to homeowners closer to HQ.
- Equity. Recent IPOs (a few names you'd recognize) put fresh down payments into the buyer pool.
Where price growth is concentrated
It's not even across the South Bay. The April YoY breakdown:
- Sunnyvale 94087: ▲ 5.1%
- Milpitas: ▲ 4.2%
- Mountain View: ▲ 4.4%
- Cupertino: ▲ 3.8%
- Palo Alto: ▲ 2.9%
The pattern: cities with the strongest school zones at sub-$2.5M medians are outperforming the prestige zones. Milpitas and Sunnyvale 94087 are the value plays.
Where to be careful
Cupertino prestige zones (Monta Vista, Lincoln, Faria): prices have flattened relative to inflation. Still a great hold, but if you're buying in 2026, expect 3–4% annual appreciation, not the double-digits of 2018–2021.
Palo Alto: The slowest growth. Some specific blocks are flat. Stanford-adjacency premium has compressed. Still a best-in-class hold but not the appreciation machine it once was.
Townhomes in newer developments (Mountain View, parts of Sunnyvale): Single-family is outperforming townhomes by ~30% over the past 5 years. If you're in a townhome and considering a move-up, your equity has accumulated less than the market headlines suggest.
The school-zone effect this spring
I'm seeing 8–15% price premiums on homes within 0.4 miles of 9- or 10-rated elementaries vs. otherwise-comparable homes 0.6+ miles outside the zone. This premium has widened from 5–8% in 2024.
If schools matter to you, expect to pay it. If they don't, the value is on the other side of the line.
What I'm telling clients in May
Buyers: Don't wait for the rate cut. The price growth this year will likely outpace any rate relief. If you find a 9/10 home in 9/10 schools at a reasonable price, transact.
Sellers: List in May, lean toward the higher end of your estimate range. Spring buyers have rate fatigue and will absorb premium pricing.
Investors: Milpitas duplexes and Newark single-family with ADU potential are still mathing in 2026. Stay disciplined on rent estimates. Aria can pull live comps for you.
The full April 2026 dataset (47-page PDF with neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakouts) is available to my newsletter subscribers. Subscribe with one click: no spam, one email a month.
Swati